The reason is that the Pentagon estimate is from late-2019 ( when we estimated 290) and only includes “operational” warheads, while our estimate also includes warheads produced for missiles in the process of being fielded. Our estimate for the Chinese warhead stockpile is higher than the “low-200s” listed in the Pentagon’s 2020 China report. The remaining 78 warheads are thought to have been produced for the new DF-41 and two additional SSBNs being fielded. M Of these 350 warheads, an estimated 272 are thought to be assigned to operational forces. For a detailed overview of French nuclear forces, see here). Warhead loadings on some submarines missiles have been reduced to increase targeting flexibility. L Weapons for France’s single aircraft carrier are not deployed on the ship under normal circumstances but could be on short notice.
K In addition to the roughly 3,600 warheads in the military stockpile and the 1,900 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, approximately 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 4,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) from dismantled warheads are in storage at the Pantex Plant in Texas and Y-12 plant in Tennessee. In 2021, the Biden administration declassified the number of warheads in the stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads, noting that the stockpile consisted of 3,750 warheads as of September 2020. After that, the Trump administration decided no longer to declassify the numbers. government declared in March 2018 that its stockpile included 3,822 warheads as of September 2017. I Non-deployed reserve includes an estimated 1,820 strategic and 130 non-strategic warheads in central storage. H Approximately 100 B61 bombs are deployed in Europe at six bases in five countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey).
G This number is higher than the aggregate data released under the New START data because this table also counts bomber weapons on bomber bases as deployed. See 2021 overview of Russian forces here. A major uncertainty is how many tactical weapons will be replaced by new nuclear versions versus conventional weapons. The future of the Russian stockpile size is debated: US Strategic Command and part of the Intelligence Community claim “Russia’s overall nuclear stockpile is likely to grow significantly over the next decade – growth driven primarily by a projected increase in Russia’s non-strategic nuclear weapons.” Others privately disagree. Public details are scarce, but we estimate that Russia is dismantling 200-300 retired warheads per year. Many retired non-strategic warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement.Į Includes an estimated 985 strategic warheads and all 1,912 non-strategic warheads.į In addition to the 4,497 warheads in the military stockpile, an estimated 1,760 retired warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement. Numbers have been updated for later changes.ĭ All are declared to be in central storage, although some storage sites may be close to bases with operational forces. Detailed overview of Russian forces as of 2021 is here. But China, India, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and United Kingdom are all thought to be increasing their stockpiles (see map):Ī Warheads in the “military stockpile” are defined as warheads in the custody of the military and earmarked for use by military forces.ī The “total inventory” counts warheads in the military stockpile as well as retired, but still intact, warheads awaiting dismantlement.Ĭ This number is higher than the aggregate data under the New START treaty because this table also counts bomber weapons at bomber bases as deployed. France and Israel have relatively stable inventories. The United States is probably still reducing its stockpile but appears to be leveling out. In terms military stockpiles (those warheads assigned to operational forces), however, the overall number is increasing again.
Moreover, all of that reduction is happening only because the United States and Russia are still dismantling previously retired warheads. Globally, the overall inventory of nuclear weapons is declining, but the pace of reduction is slowing compared with the past 30 years. Despite progress in reducing nuclear weapon arsenals since the Cold War, the world’s combined inventory of nuclear warheads remains at a very high level: Nine countries possessed roughly 13,150 warheads as of mid-2021.Īpproximately 91 percent of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the United States who each have around 4,000 warheads in their military stockpiles no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security.
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